If you have been thinking about buying or selling in 2025, this question is probably on your mind.
The threat of tariffs became a reality on Saturday with Donald Trump’s aggressive and ill informed decision to violate the free trade agreement he signed in 2018 and impose massive charges on Canadian goods crossing the border.
As a result, Justin Trudeau announced we would impose retaliatory tariffs against the USA. And just like that, we were on the brink of a trade war with the country that was supposed to be our closest ally and friend.
Across social media platforms people responded by coming together to promote Canadian products and sports fans made their disapproval clear by booing the American national anthem at professional hockey and basketball games.
But at 4:38pm on Monday February 3rd, Trudeau announced that the tariffs had been paused for “at least the next 30 days” as we implement the border security plan (a plan that had already been signed while Biden was in office). So for now, we can all breathe a collective sigh of relief.
While the unity was nice to see, the worry was also real.
It’s clear Trump’s tariffs would directly impact the industries that deliver products to the United States, particularly the automotive, oil and gas, aluminum, and farming industries. But how would the impact of tariffs extend to the housing industry?
At this point it’s very much speculation. However, we can say a few things:
Uncertainty about the economy usually makes Buyers nervous and this could cause them to pause their searches, until we are more certain about what path Trump will take.
At the same time, last week the chief economist of the Bank of Montreal, Doug Porter, said there is a good chance that the Bank of Canada will respond to the situation by lowering rates further and suggested that a “light trade war” could provide a boost to the housing market.
When the Bank of Canada lowered rates in response to the pandemic in 2020, the market took off and we saw record activity and rising prices when it was least expected.
However, he also said that if a trade war goes on too long, it will have a wider impact on the economy and this will most certainly impact the housing market as well.
Despite all the noise coming out of the United States, we are seeing sales reported and an undaunted attitude from our Buyer and Seller clients.
If you are worried about the value of your home, please don’t hesitate to reach out and speak with us about what is happening in your area. And, if you are considering a purchase we will be sure to let you know what direction we see prices moving.
In the meantime, try to find joy, connect with your community, be a helper. And, if you’re struggling, look for the helpers.
We are here.
Erin and Julie
